US Retail Sales is the most important number out today, but we are once again dealing with a February number and the weather impact is an unknown. We expect stronger than expected numbers.
What's going on?
· The Swiss National Bank was slightly more positive in yesterday’s assessment and the bank raised its 2010 GDP forecast from 0.5-1.0% to 1.5% while price stability is still expected in the short term. We are bullish on the CHF.
· US Retail Sales is the most important number out today, but we are once again dealing with a February number and the weather impact is an unknown. Vehicle sales dropped for a second month in a row in February and they are now down 8% from December.
· Later we have the U. of Michigan consumer confidence report and business inventories. We are not as optimistic as consensus regarding inventories as we look for a decline of 0.1% decline vs. an increase of 0.1% for consensus.
· If we close above 1150 today in S&P 500 and open higher on Monday we could have a strong signal for further strength in the near future with our sight set on the 1200 mark.
Calendar
|
Economic Data Releases |
|
|
Country |
Time (GMT) |
Name |
Saxo |
Consensus |
Prior |
|
EC |
11:00 |
Industrial Production MoM (JAN) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
US |
13:30 |
Retail Sales / ex Autos MoM (FEB) |
0.1% / 0.2% |
-0.2% / 0.1% |
0.5% / 0.6% |
|
US |
14:55 |
U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR) |
|
74.0 |
73.6 |
|
FX |
Daily stance |
Comment |
|
EURUSD |
0/+ |
Buy at the break of 1.3707 targeting 1.3735. S/L below 1.3692. |
|
USDJPY |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 90.60 and target 90.82. Stop below 90.53. |
|
EURJPY |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 124.00 and target 124.35. Stop below 123.88. |
|
GBPUSD |
0/+ |
Buy at the break of 1.5086 targeting 1.5121. S/L below 1.5070.
|
|
AUDUSD |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 0.9160 and target 0.9188. Stop below 0.9150. |